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    • Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test
      Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test For all that we've talked about the 4.32% technical level and considering yields hit the 3pm close at 4.338, one might expect today to have been important, interesting, or eventful.  In truth, it was none of those things as this magnitude of breakout is well within the margin of […]
    • Mortgage Rates Inch to March Highs
      Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon.  In the slightly bigger picture rates have moved up roughly a quarter of a percent in just over a week and that's a relatively quick move. The last time rates rose a quarter of […]
    • DSCR, FHA DPA, LOS, Warehouse, AI, Social Media Products; NAR Settlement Updates
      Lenders are refinancing borrowers who took out intermediate ARMs 3, 5, or 7 years ago and whose rates have gone up. Some here in Las Vegas, walking around humming this tune while at the ICE and Lender Toolkit event, will say that adjustable-rate mortgages are a gamble that paid off from 1982 through 2021 but […]
    • Fed Week Begins With Yields Up Against Ceiling
      Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc.  Technical levels don't predict the future, but they can provide context for trends.  In some cases, they can serve as cues for the next trend.  For instance, if a key level is broken, it can be a cue for traders continue pushing in the direction of the breakout or a […]
    • On The Road To Rate Cuts, Markets Asking "Are We There Yet?" (Spoiler Alert: No)
      Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2024, we keep asking "are we there yet?" The more we ask, the farther we seem to be from the destination. This trip began with […]
    • Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week
      Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and over the recent 4.32+ ceiling in 10yr yields, but trading calmed down and trended sideways in a narrow range for the rest of the day.  It was a calm conclusion to what has otherwise […]
    • Non-QM Secondary, TPO, Servicing, General Ledger, Marketing Products ; Events and Training
      Just once, I want a username and password prompt to say, “Close enough.” Speaking of technology, this weekend Robbie and I head to Las Vegas for the ICE Experience 24 events (led off by the Lender Toolkit Supercar Experience). One big topic is bound to be constantly shifting origination channels, and the current STRATMOR Group […]
    • No Help From Data Today
      This morning's line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact at times.  This is not one of those times.  While volume suggests traders waiting to make trades at 8:30am, there was no bias toward higher or lower levels at […]
    • Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question
      Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate cuts from the Fed quickly gave way to the notion of needing "just a bit more confidence" that inflation was sustainably on the path to 2.0% before rate cuts could commence.  That shift in verbiage coincided with […]
    • Mortgage Rates Back Above 7%
      Even though Tuesday's consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today's wholesale inflation report that did the most damage. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale inflation running hotter than expected by quite a wide margin overall (0.6% month-over-month versus a median forecast of 0.3%).  Even after […]

Amy Leenhouts Harrill®

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