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    • Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
      Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data While today's monthly core PCE headline may have technically been higher than the median forecast, a vast majority of forecasters abstained from submitting updated guesses to data aggregators after yesterday's quarterly PCE data.  Had they been compelled to do so, the forecast would almost certainly have risen to 0.2 from […]
    • Inflation Data Continues Paving The Way For (Eventual) Rate Cuts
      This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to see rates drop, it was important for PCE to confirm the progress seen in the CPI data (the other major inflation index that came out 2 weeks ago).   Spoiler alert: […]
    • DPA, Virtual Assistant, Non-QM products; Events, Training, and Webinars
      The only thing constant is change. After 53 years, Southwest Airlines is ending its 100 percent open seating policy! (I don’t mind lining up.) People and companies have to adjust… Time waits for no one. What were concerts like in 1964, 60 years ago? Here’s an interesting chart that shows where the U.S. Government pegged […]
    • Bonds Rallying Despite Higher Core PCE
      After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include higher numbers divided across the months of April, May, and June in some unknown proportion.  If April and May were not revised, it suggested an unrounded monthly core PCE of 0.37 […]
    • Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range
      Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range Today marked an uptick in the importance of economic data for the week and it had obvious consequences for volatility.  Of particular importance was the higher reading in quarterly PCE prices.  Because this is the first look at Q2 data, it's one of 4 days […]
    • Mortgage Rates Inch to Another Short Term High
      Mortgage rates continue moving in very small steps from day to day--something that's been the case since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) more than 2 weeks ago.  Unfortunately, more of those steps have been higher in the past week, and today is no exception for most lenders. This is counterintuitive to those who closely follow […]
    • Strong Start Despite Data Driven Volatility
      It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful economic data.  There were also several instances of mystery movement in bonds, forcing analysts to focus on curve trading as a thematic driver.  What is curve trading?  In not so […]
    • Hedging, VOE, DPA Products; Wholesaler and Program Changes; STRATMOR Ops Workshop
      As lenders continue to deal with change (the latest rumors have Flagstar is selling its mortgage group to Mr. Cooper; rumor only, ask your rep for real information), many people took note when ex-President Trump claimed, during his recent speech, that, “mortgage rates have quadrupled” during the Biden Administration. So, if Agency 30-year fixed rate […]
    • Mortgage Rates Move Up To 2 Week Highs After Starting Out Flat
      Mortgage rates technically moved up to the highest levels in 2 weeks today, but that sounds a bit more dramatic than it actually is.  Rates have largely held inside a narrow range close to the lowest levels in 6 months during that time.  Today's weakness in the bond market just happened to nudge the average […]
    • Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent?
      Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent? Bonds began the day in stronger territory and remained stronger through mid-day despite AM volatility.  Some of the volatility was driven by economic data with S&P Global Services PMI coming in higher than expected.  Most of the day's movement, however, was driven by "something else," and something else […]

Amy Leenhouts Harrill®

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