Jim Fraser, RealtorŪ
License # 01383288
(415) 789-5239 direct
(415) 254-0253 cell
(866) 488-0775 fax-toll free
JimFraser@MarinIsMyHome.com




Local Market Info - Year End 2016

Happy New Year!  I hope that your New Year?s celebration was a good one and that 2017 is off to a positive start, albeit a bit wet. Yes, we always need the rain, however, I for one would welcome a break. 

So how did we end the year? Is our local market going to remain strong for sellers, or is it slowing down? Will buyers soon be in control? Or, is it business as usual? To be honest, there is not one simple answer. Unit sales continue to decline from previous years, which represents three straight years of unit sales declines. Valuations remain positive year on year, on a Marin County basis. Details by municipality are noted in the enclosed chart. One trend (perhaps) that is emerging issome slight resistance at the higher end, i.e., > $3.0m. Belvedere, Kentfield, Ross, Sausalito and Tiburon have seen their median prices for SFH?s decline slightly from previous highs. (This could also be reflective of the inventory mix available for sale.)

 

Marin County 2016 Sales Recap vs. 2015

Single Family Homes

Condominiums

Units

Median Price

Units

Median Price

-14%

+8%

-13%

+6% 


Inventory levels
remain at historic low levels. We?re starting 2017 with -16% fewer residential properties for sale than we had in January 2016. What?s really alarming is that the level of available residential properties for sale is now 2/3rds less than it was in January 2011.

 

Percentage of Sales by Price Category

Percentage of Multiple Offers by Price Category

 Price Category

2010

2015

2016

2015

2016

$0- $1.0m

69%

55%

51%

42%

46%

$1.0m - $2.0m

22%

32%

36%

44%

47%

$2.0m - $3.0m

6%

8%

8%

41%

42%

>$3.0m

3%

5%

5%

24%

27% 


So, what does all of this data tell us? Clearly, sellers remain in control of our local real estate market, i.e. buyer demand for housing has not yet been satisfied. Also, it is no surprise that the multiple offer environment remains fairly active in Marin County, for we have more buyers than sellers. Remember, we have a fixed amount of housing available relative to other counties, i.e. there are no new (meaningful) single family home or condominium developments in Marin County. 

Ok, so what about 2017? My forecast is that we?ll have another positive year for sellers and a frustrating year for buyers. More inventory is coming, however, my sources note that there will not be enough available (quality) inventory to meet demand. As for pricing, you should anticipate modest increases verses the double-digit craziness we experienced a few short years ago. Lastly, interest rates will continue their upward trend and impact opening price point first time buyers more than others. 

If you are considering the marketing and sale of your home in 2017,it is the time to begin the process. With lean inventories and positive demand throughout Marin, the market bias continues to favor sellers. Please feel free to contact me and I?ll be more than happy to come by and provide you with a comprehensive market analysis and home evaluation, coupled with a strategic marketing and sales plan, enabling you to achieve success with the sale of your home in 2017.

Happy New Year!

Sincerely,

 

Jim Fraser, Luxury Property Specialist





 


 




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